Sunday, August 26, 2007

Best Bang for the Buck - Goaltending, Finale

I was off at wedding festivities for a good friend of mine most of the weekend so I'm a bit late. By my timezone though, I still got this out before the weekend was over.

This one took a lot more thought than picking a winner for Bang for the Buck on Defense. Goaltending is more than just stats and numbers as the defensive corps of a team can make a huge difference on how well the goaltender looks.

So aside from just perusing stats and projecting abilities for next season I've tried to take into account who was playing in front of the goaltender. If you feel my picks are way off base, feel free to leave a comment.

We'll start with a rundown of the final four, in alphabetical order.

Buffalo Sabres - $3.4M
Ryan Miller played on the #1 offensive team in the league last season and didn't put up eye-popping numbers. His GAA was 2.73 and his save percentage was .911. Not exactly stellar on paper. But on screen it was a whole different story. He was a rock in goal for Buffalo and gave them the freedom to play a run-and-gun style offense with little thought for the consequences. With a winning percentage of 63%, he's a steal at just $2.7M for the next years.

Calgary Flames - $3.3M
Miika Kiprusoff continues to be cool as a cucumber for the Calgary Flames - at least for one more year. Posting up numbers of 2.46 and .917, he continues to show that he is one of the premier goaltenders in the world today. Next year he will wave goodbye to his $3.33M cap hit and quite possibly find himself in a new city as well.

Minnesota Wild - $3.8M
Manny Fernandez was given the #1 job when Roloson was traded but when he suffered an untimely injury, Nicklas Backstrom proved he was up to the test. Posting stellar numbers of 1.97 and .929, Backstrom soon made Fernandez expandable as well. A 41 game season is a decent test for a goaltending but how will Backstrom do with upwards of 60 starts? If he falters, Josh Harding will be waiting.

New Jersey Devils - $5.9M
Martin Brodeur is still a good deal at a cap hit of $5.2M. He won 62% of his games while posting a GAA of 2.18 and a save percentage of .922. His numbers dipped a bit in the playoffs as the Lightning seemed find a hole in his game, but he still managed a GAA of 2.44 with a .916 save percentage. Just as you shouldn't bet against Randy Couture in UFC, you shouldn't bet against Marty Brodeur.

Let's jump right into the winning order now:

#4 - Minnesota Wild - $3.8M
Nicklas Backstrom showed he could get it done for half a season, but can he get it done for a full season? Josh Harding played superb in his 7 games last year so looks to make a very safe backup should Backstrom falter.

#3 - New Jersey Devils - $5.9M
The highest cap hit of the bunch but for good reason. Martin Brodeur is world-class and the reigning workhorse of the league with 78 games under his belt last season. Kevin Weekes will show up for his half dozen or less games and as long as he wins 2 or 3 of those, the Devils should be happy.

#2 - Buffalo Sabres - $3.4M
Ryan Miller stepped up his game in the playoffs and Jocelyn Thibault will be a competent backup for the 15 games he's likely to see. If Miller can find the ability to put in a 70+ game season, he'll be moving into some illustrious company.

#1 - Calgary Flames - $3.3M
Miika Kiprusoff pulls out the win here, as he often does in goal. Calgary gave up a lot of shots last year and Kiprusoff was there to bail them out more times than they can count. His calm demeanor might be a bit too calming, making it easy for the Flames to think less about defense and more about offense. He'll be looking for a big contract next year so look for his numbers to improve.

Honorable Mention

Vancouver Canucks - $7.4M
Yes, it's a lot of cash but it's hard to argue against a world-class goaltender - and in my opinion the best goaltender in the NHL - receiving that kind of money. A goaltender that can carry a team on his back almost into the conference finals is near priceless. He also posted a 2.29 GAA and .921 save pct in the regular season and upped those numbers to 1.77 and .941 in the playoffs. Who wouldn't want him?

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