Friday, August 31, 2007

Marleau Signs 2-year Extension

The ballyhoo is over and Patrick Marleau has signed a 2-year extension with the Sharks. The deal pays him $6M per year and keeps him in teal through 09/10. So it appears some folks were wrong on thinking Marleau would be shipped out, even when Wilson continually denied it. And it appears other folks were right saying he wasn't going anywhere. I'm not saying who those people were but I'm sure you can all figure it out.

Patrick is consistently one of the most underrated players in the league, possibly due to the expectation people had as he entered the NHL as an 18-year old WHL phenom. He hardly misses a game (20 missed games in 9 seasons), has deceptive speed, great patience and good hands. The last 2 seasons he's been a point-per-game producer and, while having an off series against Detroit, has been an excellent playoff performer.

Doug Wilson's quote from the official release sums it all up:
“Patrick understands what we are trying to do, where we’ve been and where we’re going,” said Wilson. “He appreciates what our goals are and where we need to go. That is very important. Patrick is among the game’s top forwards and his stats speak for themselves”

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Best Bang for the Buck - Goaltending, Finale

I was off at wedding festivities for a good friend of mine most of the weekend so I'm a bit late. By my timezone though, I still got this out before the weekend was over.

This one took a lot more thought than picking a winner for Bang for the Buck on Defense. Goaltending is more than just stats and numbers as the defensive corps of a team can make a huge difference on how well the goaltender looks.

So aside from just perusing stats and projecting abilities for next season I've tried to take into account who was playing in front of the goaltender. If you feel my picks are way off base, feel free to leave a comment.

We'll start with a rundown of the final four, in alphabetical order.

Buffalo Sabres - $3.4M
Ryan Miller played on the #1 offensive team in the league last season and didn't put up eye-popping numbers. His GAA was 2.73 and his save percentage was .911. Not exactly stellar on paper. But on screen it was a whole different story. He was a rock in goal for Buffalo and gave them the freedom to play a run-and-gun style offense with little thought for the consequences. With a winning percentage of 63%, he's a steal at just $2.7M for the next years.

Calgary Flames - $3.3M
Miika Kiprusoff continues to be cool as a cucumber for the Calgary Flames - at least for one more year. Posting up numbers of 2.46 and .917, he continues to show that he is one of the premier goaltenders in the world today. Next year he will wave goodbye to his $3.33M cap hit and quite possibly find himself in a new city as well.

Minnesota Wild - $3.8M
Manny Fernandez was given the #1 job when Roloson was traded but when he suffered an untimely injury, Nicklas Backstrom proved he was up to the test. Posting stellar numbers of 1.97 and .929, Backstrom soon made Fernandez expandable as well. A 41 game season is a decent test for a goaltending but how will Backstrom do with upwards of 60 starts? If he falters, Josh Harding will be waiting.

New Jersey Devils - $5.9M
Martin Brodeur is still a good deal at a cap hit of $5.2M. He won 62% of his games while posting a GAA of 2.18 and a save percentage of .922. His numbers dipped a bit in the playoffs as the Lightning seemed find a hole in his game, but he still managed a GAA of 2.44 with a .916 save percentage. Just as you shouldn't bet against Randy Couture in UFC, you shouldn't bet against Marty Brodeur.

Let's jump right into the winning order now:

#4 - Minnesota Wild - $3.8M
Nicklas Backstrom showed he could get it done for half a season, but can he get it done for a full season? Josh Harding played superb in his 7 games last year so looks to make a very safe backup should Backstrom falter.

#3 - New Jersey Devils - $5.9M
The highest cap hit of the bunch but for good reason. Martin Brodeur is world-class and the reigning workhorse of the league with 78 games under his belt last season. Kevin Weekes will show up for his half dozen or less games and as long as he wins 2 or 3 of those, the Devils should be happy.

#2 - Buffalo Sabres - $3.4M
Ryan Miller stepped up his game in the playoffs and Jocelyn Thibault will be a competent backup for the 15 games he's likely to see. If Miller can find the ability to put in a 70+ game season, he'll be moving into some illustrious company.

#1 - Calgary Flames - $3.3M
Miika Kiprusoff pulls out the win here, as he often does in goal. Calgary gave up a lot of shots last year and Kiprusoff was there to bail them out more times than they can count. His calm demeanor might be a bit too calming, making it easy for the Flames to think less about defense and more about offense. He'll be looking for a big contract next year so look for his numbers to improve.

Honorable Mention

Vancouver Canucks - $7.4M
Yes, it's a lot of cash but it's hard to argue against a world-class goaltender - and in my opinion the best goaltender in the NHL - receiving that kind of money. A goaltender that can carry a team on his back almost into the conference finals is near priceless. He also posted a 2.29 GAA and .921 save pct in the regular season and upped those numbers to 1.77 and .941 in the playoffs. Who wouldn't want him?

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Best Bang for the Buck - Goaltending, Part 3

It's the final installment before I pick a winner in the Best Bang for the Buck - Goaltending series. Part 1 and Part 2 are still available on the homepage.

Ottawa Senators - $6.9M
Ray Emery was rewarded with a 3-year, $9.5M contract over the summer after cementing himself as the #1 in Ottawa. With Martin Gerber making nearly $4M per year, you can bet the Senators will be looking to move him at the right price. As long as Emery continues to improve, and all indications are that he will, the Senators need to find a backup who can play about 15 games over the season while being light on the pocket book.

Philadelphia Flyers - $4.7M
Martin Biron was brought in at the trade deadline to become the Flyers #1 goaltender for the remainder of the year. He was then signed to a two-year extension and is expected to be the #1 this year as well. However Antero Niitymaki, also signed to a two-year extension, will look to challenge him for that title. Niitymaki is coming off of a poor season where he posted 9-29-9 record, 3.38 goals-against average and .894 save percentage in 52 games. This duo has potential and, with an improved defensive corps, could live up to it.

Pittsburgh Penguins - $1.9M
Marc-Andre Fleury is still working on his game but he's shown obvious improvements every year. I still feel the sting of his unfortunate mishap during the '04 World Juniors but I forgive him. At a cap hit of just $1.3M, he looks to be a bargain this year. Dany Sabourin and Ty Conklin were brought in to battle it out for the backup position and should provide reasonable results. Conklin is on a two-way contract while Sabourin, poached off of waivers by the Canucks last year, is one-way. Those two pieces of information could play into who gets the backup job.

Phoenix Coyotes - $1.4M
The Coyotes have a logjam in the crease and they're still under the league minimum salary by a fair amount. They signed David Aebischer to a dirt cheap $600,000 contract but based on his play in Montreal, that might not be too out of whack. Mikael Tellqvist is still on board and the Coyotes added Alex Auld recently. With prospect David Leneveau in the background, it will make for quite a battle in training camp. Aebischer and Auld have everything to prove and everything to lose at this point but can either handle the pressure?

San Jose Sharks - 5.4M
Evgeni Nabokov is in as the undisputed #1 after Vesa Toskala was traded to Toronto. The writing was on the wall for Toskala long ago and finally Doug Wilson found an appropriate trading partner. Nabokov played well in the regular season and playoffs and is quite capable of stealing games when necessary. The new backup, Dimitri Patzold, comes in on the heels of a couple slight fallback seasons in the AHL after previously showing continuous improvement. He likely won't be called upon too much as Nabokov will likely gobble up 65+ starts with Toskala out of the picture.

St. Louis Blues - $2.7M
Manny Legace put up decent numbers with the Blues last season as he split duties with Curtis Sanford and Jason Bacashihua. Sanford is gone and Hannu Toivonen is in to challenge Bacashihua for the backup position/#1b position. Not an enviable crew by any means but they do have Marek Schwarz being groomed in the background.

Tampa Bay Lightning - $3.9M
The goaltending duo of Marc Denis and Johan Holmqvist returns to give John Tortorella more fits than he can shake a stick at. Denis and Holmqvist combined to produce a league worst goals to shots ratio and often left Tortorella frothing at the mouth after their performances. Note to Tortorella: sometimes screaming doesn't help.

Toronto Maple Leafs - $4.1M
The Leafs made their goaltending situation interesting after acquiring Vesa Toskala from the Sharks. Andrew Raycroft, brought in last year to be the #1 in exchange for top prospect Tuuka Raask, fizzled out and never performed up to the lofty expectations set upon a Calder winning goaltender. If Raycroft isn't dealt before the season begins, there will be a battle for the #1 spot which I believe will be won by Vesa Toskala. The Leafs also have Scott Clemmenson in the fold who would become the backup if/when Raycroft is dealt.

Vancouver Canucks - $7.4M
What can be said about Roberto Luongo. Like him or love him, he's one of the best in the world and anybody who thinks otherwise is deluding him or herself. The Canucks have brought in Curtis Sanford who should prepare himself to start about half a dozen games this season. Luongo has slowly increased his amount of starts each year but I've got to believe he won't start more than 76 games. If he does, I'll start to question whether he's a robot sent back in time and not an actual living, breathing human.

Washington Capitals - $6.3M
Olaf Kolzig continues to fly under the radar as one of the better goaltenders in the league. Of course a lot of that has to do with his choice to stay with the Washington Capitals for so long. His numbers have declined slightly, in accordance with Washington's declines, and at 37 years old is likely not going be a game breaker anymore. However he's a great mentor for Brent Johnson who will back up Kolzig again this year.

And so ends the review of all 30 teams in the league. I will let this all sink in for everyone, including myself, and post up the winners sometime over the weekend.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Best Bang for the Buck - Goaltending, Part 2

Continuing my Best Bang for the Buck - Goaltending series, part two is below.

Detroit Red Wings - $4.9M
Hasek held out for a full season with the Wings and helped lead them to the Western Conference finals with a steller 1.78 GAA and .923 save percentage. His regular season numbers, 2.05 and .913, were also exceptional and he has shown that he still has it. Sure, he was playing behind the team that gave up the least shots against per game but the goals to shots ratio was still in the top-half of the league. Chris Osgood was very capable in a backup role and could become an adequate starter should Hasek succumb to an injury.

Edmonton Oilers - $4.8M
The Oilers snagged Mathieu Garon to fill up the backup role behind their #1, Dwayne Roloson. Roloson played decently last season but is still saddled with inconsistency issues. He will come up with huge saves from time to time but then falls back to being an average goaltender shortly afterwords. If he can't shake off those troubles, the Oilers may lean on Garon to take some pressure off Roloson as he tends to play better under a 1a/1b situation.

Florida Panthers - $6.4M
After acquiring Tomas Vokoun on draft day, they signed Craig Anderson to back him up. With these two deals, they've again landed a solid #1 goaltender and a decent backup. It wasn't a long wait for Panthers fans after seeing their franchise netminder, Roberto Luongo, shipped out west. Vokoun carries a pretty hefty price tag of $5.7M per season which lands him up amongst the highest paid goaltenders in the league.

Los Angeles Kings - $3.9M
The Kings have an issue in the crease and Dan Cloutier is most definitely not the answer. When he's not injured, he's underperforming and putting up a near 4.00 GAA. Labarbera won the Best Goaltending award in the AHL last year - he also won it in 03/04 - and this could be his first full year in the NHL. It appears he has the potential but it's anyone's guess if he'll ever fully realize it.

Minnesota Wild - $3.8M
When Manny Fernandez went down with injury, Niklas Backstrom stepped up to the plate and eventually superceded Fernandez as the #1, posting a stellar 1.97 GAA and .929 save percentage. With Josh Harding primed for his first full season as a backup this duo, on paper, looks excellent.

Montreal Canadiens - $3.4M
Cristobal Huet was not the saviour that all Canadiens fans were hoping for. And when he went down to a hamstring injury, the supposed #1b David Aebischer couldn't hold on to the ball leading to Jaroslav Halak being called up. Halak played so well that many felt he was the saviour they were hoping for. Wrong again. With Huet healed up for this season, Halak is likely to back him up while the organization grooms their true saviour, Carey Price.

Nashville Predators - $1.8M
Chris Mason was only ever regarded as a minor-leaguer with potential to be a backup in the NHL. However when Tomas Vokoun went down to a thumb injury, he stepped in admirably posting a 2.38 GAA and .925 save percentage. Pekka Rinne will play the role of the unproven backup to back up the unproven #1. Rinne performed well in the AHL last season but management has to feel a tinge of fear with this duo. But they may be too caught up with other things to care.

New Jersey Devils - $5.9M
After turning in a standard Brodeur performance, a Vezina winning one at that, in the regular season, he seemed to falter a bit in the playoffs. His numbers were excellent but he seemed a bit lost on the ice. Could we be seeing the start of the downward slide of the pressure-loving Brodeur? I doubt it. With Weekes to back him up if he does falter, there isn't a big safety net.

New York Islanders - $5.0M
After signing a 15-year contract, Rick DiPietro put in a good performance in the 06/07 season as the Islanders had one of the best ratios of goals against to shots against. Wade Dubielwicz put up decent numbers but played in less than 10 games so it's tough to judge what he'll do as a backup who could play in up to 20 games. They've also got Mike Dunham and Joey McDonald in the fold which makes me go "Meh".

New York Rangers - $4.9M
Henrik Lundqvist re-signed to a one-year deal worth $4.25M. I'd get on my soapbox and say "That was exactly the number I predicted" but I won't. Or maybe I just did. Anyways, they've got their #1 back in the fold for the upcoming season and they're going to need him to step up as they don't have the greatest of lineups on defence. It's possible that Al Montoya could see some ice time this season but they'll likely use Valiquette as the backup. Lundqvist played 70 games last season and there's no reason to subject Montoya to sitting on the bench when he could continue to develop in the AHL.

Part 3 yet to come followed up by a finale naming the team with the Best Bang for the Buck in Goal. Stay tuned!

Monday, August 20, 2007

Best Bang for the Buck - Goaltending, Part 1

After finishing up my Best Bang for the Buck, Defence series, I'm moving on to goaltending. Please feel free to continue leaving comments on the Defence series and on this one as well. Thanks to Kukla's Korner for sending a lot of traffic my way. I hope it was worth the read.

Anaheim Ducks - $7.2M
J.S. Giguere and Ilya Bryzgalov are fresh off a Cup win and Giguere is fresh off a renewed contract. Unfortunately he's also fresh off of hernia surgery. It appears it wasn't a severe hernia so his play shouldn't be affected by it but it's tough to say for sure. Bryzgalov is publicly on the shopping block but Burke will likely be more picky - if that's possible - than before when analyzing a deal involving Ilya. But with two #1 goaltenders on board, they'll be getting some quality performance. Unfortunately it's not a price they can afford to pay.

Atlanta Thrashers - $3.35M
They've got 3 goaltenders affecting their cap right now: Kari Lehtonen, Johan Hedberg and Freddie Braithwaite. It's going to be a battle between Hedberg and Braithwaite as to who backs up Lehtonen out of training camp. My money is on Hedberg which would bring their hit down to $2.85M once Braithwaite is sent down/traded. Lehtonen has certainly shown his potential but he's also demonstrated his inexperience at times. If he can be all he can be, it's a solid price point.

Boston Bruins - $5.4M
The Bruins big off-season move was acquiring Manny Fernandez from Minnesota to help fill in their rotating door position in goal. Last season Tim Thomas was the #1 backed up by Hannu Toivonen. This year he will likely find himself splitting duties as the #1a with Fernandez, who fared well in his first season as #1 with the Wild last year but was unseated by hot-shot Nik Backstrom after going down to injury late in the season. The question is whether these two goaltenders can co-exist without Thomas seriously maiming Fernandez in the locker room if he whines too much.

Buffalo Sabres - $3.4M
I followed the Buffalo Sabres closely in the playoffs as they were an exciting team to watch. None more exciting to me than Ryan Miller - no, not even Afinogenov. Ryan Miller is one of the skinniest goaltenders I've ever known and boy does he know how to use his frame, speed and agility to their penultimate ability. Jocelyn Thibault is a good backup at a reasonable price which gives this team a pretty solid price to performance ratio.

Calgary Flames - $3.3M
Miika Kiprusoff is as cool as goaltenders get and about as good as they get too. He performs superbly in the playoffs and is a workhorse during the regular season. He has a well-deserved Vezina to back up his abilities as well as a run to the Stanley Cup finals in which he played an integral role. Jaime McLennan has headed off to Russia and that will pave the way for either Brent Krahn or Curtis McElhinney to back up the perennial all-star while Leland Irving continues being groomed in the background.

Carolina Hurricanes - $4.1M
Conn Smythe winner Cam Ward leads the charge and John Grahame looks to back him up again this year. Ward did not look like a Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup winning starter last season as he posted up a 2.93 GAA so he'll be looking to rebound. Meanwhile John Grahame turned in an equally forgettable season as he continues to be dogged by inconsistent play. They need more out of this duo to match the $4.1M price tag.

Chicago Blackhawks - $7.7M
After Nikolai Khabibulin helped lead the Lightning to the Cup in 03-04, he bolted to Chicago and hasn't been able to regain that form. He had a bit of a bounceback last season but still didn't look like the Bulin Wall of old. Unfortunately he doesn't have much support on the backend right now. Patrick Lalime is the scheduled backup which is all he'll ever be at this point in his career. Unfortunately the price point is too high compared to other duos in the league.

Columbus Blue Jackets - $1.9M
Two backup-quality goaltenders, Pascal Leclaire and Fredrik Norrena, enter training camp battling it out for #1. If I was a Columbus fan, I'd be worried. Leclaire has the ability to be #1 but is still battling some holes in his game. This pair is dirt cheap for a reason. I really do feel for the Jackets fans and hope the team turns it around at some point.

Colorado Avalanche - $6.0M
The albatross contract of Jose Theodore still hangs over this teams head reminding everyone of the latter days of Pierre Lacroix. Although Theodore will be given a shot at the #1 spot again this year, he'll likely end up backstopping Budaj before long. Although Theodore has put in good performances in contract years, it just doesn't seem likely based on the last 2 seasons that he'll show his magic again. Budaj has made great strides but he is still young and unproven. His play during the stretch run has shown that he does have the ability to lead a team to victory.

Dallas Stars - $6.7M
Marty Turco finally silenced his biggest critics as he put on an excellent playoff performance last season. Unfortunately, 3 shutouts and a 1.29 GAA still couldn't get the Stars past the first round. Turco consistently performs well in the regular season and Mike Smith displayed some intriguing possibilities as he put up a 2.22 GAA in his 22 games last season. Turco is one of the highest paid goaltenders in the league and if he can continue his playoff performance this season, it could be worth it.

Stay tuned for the next round of teams in a couple days.